Two months before the Pennsylvania primary election, Democratic voters overwhelmingly favor former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton while billionaire businessman Donald Trump leads solidly among Republican voters, according to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll released today.
Clinton had the support of 48 percent of Democrats with Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders trailing at 27 percent. Another 18 percent were undecided and about 7 percent backed unspecified, other candidates.
Trump was favored by 22 percent of Republican voters, Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio by 16 percent, Ohio Gov. John Kasich a tad behind at 15 percent and Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz at 12 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson was at 6 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race last week as the poll was underway, at 4 percent.
A quarter of Republican voters remained undecided.
The results largely reflect nationwide trends in the presidential races, G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., the poll’s director, said. Though Clinton’s large lead reflects her long-standing connections to the state, including Scranton where father grew up, and her strong win over then-Sen. Barack Obama here in the 2008 presidential primary, Madonna said.
“It shouldn’t shock anyone that she holds a sizeable lead,” he said.
Madonna said he isn’t surprised by Trump’s lead either.
“If you go around the country, except for Texas, he’s ahead,” Madonna said. “But we still have a long way to go with this. The real question is, are we going to matter?”
With the state’s April 26 primary election so late in the nominating process, Madonna and others think the races could be substantially decided by then, rendering the Pennsylvania primary meaningless.
The poll surveyed 985 registered voters between Feb. 13 and Sunday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for questions asked of all voters, plus or minus 4.4 points among Democrats and plus or minus 5.1 points among Republicans.
The poll did not ask voters about head-to-head matchups between Democratic or Republican candidates.
In the presidential race, the poll did ask all voters how favorably they view Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Clinton and Sanders.
Sanders rated highest with 42 percent having either a strongly or somewhat favorable view of him. The same percentage had strongly or somewhat unfavorable views of him.
Clinton was at 39 percent/56 percent favorability/unfavorability, Rubio, 37 percent/44 percent, Trump, 27 percent/62 percent, and Cruz, 25 percent/57 percent.
Among only Democrats, Sanders and Clinton had comparable favorability/unfavorability ratings — 65 percent/28 percent for Clinton, 62 percent/21 percent for Sanders.
The Republican ratings varied more widely with the greatest division centering on Trump.
Rubio did best with 61 percent favorability compared to 19 percent unfavorability with Cruz at 48 percent/33 percent.
Trump had a 45 percent favorablility to 42 percent unfavorability.
In the U.S. Senate race, former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak slightly widened his lead among Democrats from F&M’s poll last month. Sestak had the backing of 21 percent, former state environmental secretary Katie McGinty, 12 percent, Braddock Mayor John Fetterman, 8 percent, and other candidates named by 4 percent. Last month, Sestak led McGinty by 4 percentage points and Braddock by 11 points.
More than half of voters (56 percent) remained undecided.
The winner of the Democratic primary will face Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination.
In another other finding, 58 percent of voters said they think state Attorney General Kathleen G. Kane should resign. The same percentage think the General Assembly should remove her if she doesn’t resign. Kane, who faces a criminal trial Aug. 8 on charges of leaking secret grand jury information and lying about it to a grand jury investigating the leak, announced last week she would not seek a new term.